Wednesday, September 25, 2013

INTEREST RATES: ANOTHER FEAT UNDER PF TWO-YEAR RULE

IN the last two years, the Patriotic Front (PF) government seems to have effectively utilised the Bank of Zambia (BoZ) as a major channel of economic transformation.

With the advent of the new administration in September 2011, the Central Bank became a critical driver of change and has since then recorded undeniably more innovations than any other government wing.

 By December 2011, the BoZ had revised the minimum statutory capital requirement from K12 million or US$2.3 million to about K104 million for local commercial banks and to about K520 million or $100 million for foreign banks.

 The reserve ratio for both local and foreign currency deposits were pegged at five per cent from eight per cent, while the core liquid assets ratio came down to six per cent from nine per cent. Systematically, the BoZ introduced the Policy Rate in March last year, while transforming the Base Lending Rate (BLR) into a mere lending interest rate.
BOZ LOGO
On December 19, 2012, the BoZ announced the capping of the effective annual lending interest rate that commercial banks can charge any borrower. The BoZ moved a step further and introduced a cap on the effective annual lending interest rates that non-bank financial institutions it licenses charge their customers.

The single most important innovation the Central Bank has implemented is the Kwacha rebasing whose upshots affect all Zambian nationals and residents. Effective January 1, 2013, Zambia has had a new currency.

 The BoZ had become more proactive, the performance, which has enabled it to achieve all these feats. For this year, it has introduced the Cheque Truncation System (CTS) for all commercial banks whose implementation, however, seems to have not achieved the desired goals and I will soon dedicate a week to look at that.

 The government’s main headache in this sector was the sky-rocketing interest rates charged by the commercial banks and the access to the finance by Zambians with no collateral security to talk about. We, therefore, saw government’s reduction of the corporate tax for the commercial banks from 40 per cent to 35 per cent which provided a relief of K65 million to banks under the 2012 National Budget.

 This was in the hope that banks too will pass on that to the borrowers through reduced lending rates. Generally, most of the measures in this sector have been aimed at helping to reduce the lending interest rates and avail more financial resources to the members of the public through the facility. But at first, the interest rates remained high, while the loans did not seem to have reached the targeted people.

The BoZ remained systematic on the matter and introduced the Policy Rate in March last year while transforming the BLR into lending interest rate. At first, the BoZ policy rate was vague as its effect on the market could not be quantified leaving everyone confounded as to its importance. But soon, the scenario was to change with the use of the policy rate to cap the lending interest rates being charged by the banks.

 On December 19, 2012, the BoZ announced the capping of the effective annual lending interest rate for commercial banks effectively providing the maximum interest rate chargeable by the banks on loans. This has made borrowing from commercial banks more affordable and equitable to different classes of borrowers, including those in the low-income bracket.

According to the BoZ, this cap is arrived at by adding a factor of nine per cent to the monthly Policy Rate which stands at 9.75 per cent for this month. Wary that not all borrowers rely on the commercial banks for loans, the BoZ moved a step further and introduced a cap on the effective annual lending interest rates that non-bank financial institutions it licenses charge their customers.

The move, which was announced on January 3, 2013, was prompted by the extortionate interest rates that some non-bank financial institutions had continued to charge their customers. The capping of interest rates, therefore, is aimed at making borrowing from non-bank financial institutions affordable and equitable, especially to the vulnerable micro-borrowers.

The maximum effective annual lending interest rate for non-bank financial institutions designated as micro-finance service providers by the BoZ will now not exceed 42 per cent.


 The maximum effective annual lending rate that will be charged by all other non-bank financial institutions will not exceed 30 per cent.
 In all these measures, the BoZ seems to be ensuring that splendid economic indicators for the country have a bearing on the living standards of the people. Previously, these indicators were mere statistics and somewhat contradictory to the standard of living for the people who became poorer amid splendid statistics.

The scenario has now, however, changed and all citizens can enjoy the lower interest rates being charged by both commercial banks and non-banking financial institutions.

 For comment/other contributions call: 0955431442, 0977246099 or email:jmuyanwa@gmail.com

Policy Analysis TO advance the discussion on the country’s 2012 economic performance, I want to compare the level of some real developments for the year to those recorded during the first half of 2013. The 2013 first half trends are as reported by the Bank of Zambia (BoZ) last week. BoZ Governor Dr Michael Gondwe said that although economic conditions were challenging during the period between January 1 and June 30 2013, overall activity in the real sector remained positive. This is particularly when assessed against developments in the corresponding period in 2012. According to the 2012 Economic Annual Report by the Ministry of Finance, the national food balance sheet for the 2012/13 agriculture marketing season indicated that the country produced sufficient food for national consumption. The maize surplus of 1,053,333 tonnes was projected for the season on account of opening stocks of maize amounting to 770,931 tonnes, combined with the anticipated harvest for 2012/13 season. The balance sheet shows surplus in wheat and cassava. For the first half of this year, the country has recorded a maize surplus of 453,995 tonnes. On a year-to-date basis, copper production has gone up to 477,293 tonnes, milk output at 20,808,014.2 litres and beer output at 1,041,686 hectolitres as at end-June 2013. This translate into 13.3 per cent, 15 per cent and 24.6 per cent rise respectively above the outputs in the corresponding period of 2012. Tourism posted a decrease in the number of international arrivals in 2012 but this will seemingly change this year. The sector has, in the first two quarters of this year, registered increased international arrivals at 24,213 passengers which are 26.9 more than last year’s 19,077. The sector is expected to improve significantly with the co-hosting of the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) General Assembly from August 24 to 30 2013 in Livingstone. On the monetary policy, during the first half of 2013, the authorities continued to be focused on achieving the end-year inflation target of six per cent. There were, however, myriad external and internal challenges, like the removal of fuel subsidies which meant increasing fuel pump prices and poor rainfall pattern during the 2012/2013 farming season leading to the anticipated reduction in the sector’s contribution towards national economy. For the first four months, the economy looked set to meet the six-per cent inflation target as annual overall inflation slowed down from 7.3 per cent in December 2012 to 6.5 per cent in April 2013. This was, however, short-lived because the inflation rose to seven per cent in May and reverted to 7.3 in June 2013. This according to Dr Gondwe reflected the pass-through effects of the depreciation of the Kwacha against major foreign currencies and the impact of the rise in the prices of petroleum products in May 2013. On domestic credit, the amount rose by 33 per cent to K26,165 billion in June 2013 from K19,726.8 million as at end-December 2012. This was on account of the increase in lending to Central Government and the private sector, contributing 23.8 and 8.8 percentage points, respectively, to domestic credit growth. Despite the increase in lending to Government, total public debt remains sustainable, at about 29 per cent of GDP well within the internationally acceptable threshold of 60 per cent of GDP. The commercial banks average lending rate marginally increased to 16.3 per cent in June 2013 from 16.1 per cent in December 2012. This was after the BoZ policy rate was adjusted to 9.5 per cent in June 2013 from 9.25 per cent in December 2012. The overall merchandise trade surplus marginally declined to US$356 million from US$364.6 million registered during the second half of 2012. The exchange rate was characterised by a depreciation trend. This was attributed to the high import bills and market participants’ position taking ahead of implementation of the Statutory Instrument number 55. This depreciation was moderated by steady supply of foreign exchange by corporate sector, in particular the mining companies and foreign financial firms. Against this background, Kwacha depreciated by 6.3 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 0.5 per cent against the US dollar, Euro and Pound to close at K5.4721/US$, K7.1671/€ and K8.3439/£, respectively. However, the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) has been relatively stable since September 2012, with the index averaging 99.26, reflecting maintenance of the country’s external competitiveness. The overall financial performance and condition of the banking sector for the first half of 2013 was satisfactory. Overall, the banking sector’s total primary capital increased by 79.8 per cent to K4,609 million as at end-June 2013 from K2,563 million as at end-January 2012 largely due to the revision in minimum capital requirement. For comment/other contributions call: 0955431442, 0977246099 or email: jmuyanwa@gmail.com.